Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered strong operating and financial execution: sales volumes 634 Bcfe, adjusted EPS $0.52, adjusted EBITDA $1.33B, and free cash flow attributable to EQT $484M, with record-low operating costs of $1.00/Mcfe, and average realized price of $2.76/Mcfe . Management increased the base dividend 5% to $0.66 annualized ahead of the call .
Consensus comparison: EPS beat by roughly 16 cents (actual $0.52 vs Primary EPS consensus mean $0.36*) and revenue was essentially in-line ($1.78B* vs $1.78B*) despite volatile local basis and tactical curtailments (management cited a $0.12 tighter differential vs guidance) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance: Q4 volumes 550–600 Bcfe (including 15–20 Bcfe curtailments) and full-year 2025 volumes 2,325–2,375 Bcfe; FY per-unit cost ranges and strategic growth CapEx maintained/narrowed; third‑party midstream revenue narrowed to $590–$615M .
Strategic catalysts: MVP Boost upsized 20% to 600 MDth/d (fully underpinned by 20-year utility contracts), and 4.5 MTPA LNG offtake portfolio across Sempra, NextDecade, and Commonwealth (start 2030–2031) strengthening long-cycle demand and international market optionality . CEO: “execution machine is firing on all cylinders” .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- “Production, operating expenses, capital spending and price realizations were all at the favorable end of guidance… our execution machine is firing on all cylinders” – Toby Rice .
- Corporate differential came in $0.12 tighter than guidance; marketing optimization and tactical curtailments drove realized price outperformance .
- Olympus integration completed in 34 days; Deep Utica wells drilled ~30% faster, saving ~$2M per well .
What Went Wrong
- O&M per Mcfe increased (to $0.10 from $0.07 YoY) due to operating acquired midstream assets; production depletion per Mcfe also rose (to $0.95 from $0.91 YoY) .
- Liquids pricing mixed vs prior year (NGL price fell to $31.82/bbl from $35.20/bbl; oil price $49.12/bbl vs $61.25/bbl), partially offset by higher volumes .
- Ongoing basis volatility required curtailments (15–20 Bcfe contemplated in Q4) and active optimization; SG&A per Mcfe guided higher in Q4 ($0.19–$0.21) vs FY ($0.16–$0.18) .

Financial Results

Income Statement Snapshot vs Prior Periods and Consensus

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)	$1.740	$2.558	$1.959
Net Income Attributable to EQT ($USD Millions)	$242	$784	$336
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.40	$1.30	$0.53
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$1.18	$0.45	$0.52
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1,781	$1,158	$1,328
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)*	$1.012	$0.409	$0.364
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*	$2,091.0	$1,743.6	$1,782.6
Actual EPS (S&P)*	$1.18	$0.45	$0.52
Actual Revenue (S&P, $USD Millions)*	$2,372.1	$1,798.0	$1,782.6
Values retrieved from S&P Global.* Sources: Company filings and S&P Global estimates .

Segment/Revenue Components

Operating Revenues ($USD Millions)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Sales of Natural Gas, NGLs & Oil	$2,244.7	$1,700.5	$1,677.6
Pipeline and Other	$174.0	$137.3	$145.2
Derivative Gain/(Loss) (GAAP line)	$(678.9)	$719.96	$135.78

Key KPIs and Cash Metrics

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Sales Volume (Bcfe)	571	568	634
Average Realized Price ($/Mcfe)	$3.77	$2.81	$2.76
Operating Costs ($/Mcfe)	$1.05	$1.08	$1.00
Free Cash Flow Attributable to EQT ($USD Millions)	$1,036	$240	$484
Net Debt ($USD Billions)	$8.11	$7.76	$7.98

Margins (Non-GAAP, Company-defined)

Margin	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (% of Production Adjusted Operating Revenues)	47.5%	72.4%	75.8%

Note: EBITDA margins calculated using Adjusted EBITDA divided by “Production adjusted operating revenues” as defined by the company .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q2 2025 PR)	Current Guidance (Q3 2025 8-K/PR)	Change
Total Sales Volume (Bcfe)	FY 2025	2,300–2,400	2,325–2,375	Narrowed/up slightly (raised midpoint)
Total Sales Volume (Bcfe)	Q4 2025	N/A	550–600 (incl. 15–20 curtailments)	New Q4 outlook
Average Differential ($/Mcf)	FY 2025	($0.70)–($0.50)	($0.60)–($0.50)	Tightened (midpoint better)
Operating Costs ($/Mcfe)	FY 2025	$1.03–$1.17	$1.03–$1.17	Maintained
SG&A ($/Mcfe)	FY 2025	$0.16–$0.18	$0.16–$0.18	Maintained
Third-Party Midstream Revenue ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$550–$650	$590–$615	Narrowed/higher midpoint
Maintenance CapEx ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$2,010–$2,130	$2,010–$2,090	Narrowed/lowered upper bound
Strategic Growth CapEx ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$290–$320	$290–$310	Narrowed/lowered upper bound
Distributions from MVP/LMM ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$230–$255	$250–$260	Raised
Distributions to Midstream JV NCI ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$350–$380	$350–$365	Narrowed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
LNG strategy & international exposure	Announced Olympus accretion; building LNG optionality; hedging disciplined	Signed SPAs totaling 4.5 MTPA with Sempra, NextDecade, Commonwealth; start 2030–31; “bucket is full now” and focus on sales/regas capacity; breakeven spread ~$4–$4.5/mmBtu; mix of offtake/tolling for flexibility	Expanding, structured for downside protection; execution moves to marketing
In-basin power/data centers	Shippingport/Homer City supply and midstream build; WV plant midstream exclusive	Robust pipeline; scale/speed focus; fixed-price discussions possible later to increase cash flow durability	Pipeline growing; potential shift to more structured pricing
MVP Boost/Southgate	Launched MVP Boost open season; Southgate advancing	MVP Boost upsized to 600 MDth/d, fully underpinned by utilities; Southgate “moving ahead”, overlap in customers; >1 Bcf/d incremental takeaway anticipated	Strengthening pull-demand; incremental egress visibility
Basis/curtailments & marketing optimization	Tactical production responses; basis widened; realizations protected	Reduced basis hedging going forward; use curtailments/shut-ins to opportunistically “hedge basis”; corporate differential $0.12 tighter	More proactive, volatility becomes earnings lever
Balance sheet & capital allocation	Net debt glide path; target deleveraging; buyback optionality	Target max total debt $5B; dividend increased 5%; buyback only after capacity improves; “convert liability into equity value”	Discipline maintained; shareholder return mix evolving
Maintenance production outlook	—	2026 production approximately flat vs 2025 exit; maintenance CapEx declines toward ~$2B later this decade	Stable base volumes; improving capital efficiency

Management Commentary

“Third quarter performance once again demonstrates the power of EQT’s integrated model… From record-setting operational efficiency to seamless acquisition integration and advancement of strategic growth projects” – Prepared remarks .
“MVP Boost… 100% underpinned by 20-year capacity reservation fee contracts… build multiple ~3x adjusted EBITDA” – Prepared remarks .
“We have now grown our base dividend at ~8% CAGR since 2022… confidence in sustainability… base dividend is bulletproof through commodity cycles” – CFO .
“Our total trading team size today is about 45 people… the more volatility we see… the more profitable that business will become” – CFO on marketing .

Q&A Highlights

Utilities fully took MVP Boost capacity (contrast to MVP mainline where EQT filled majority), signaling strong pull-demand; EQT may be majority supplier via Mobley plant .
Strategic growth CapEx will be discretionary, focused on full-cycle returns and unlocking upstream growth; more shots on goal in midstream pipeline .
Basis hedging reduced; curtailments and tactical shut-ins serve as “effective basis hedge” with enhanced coordination across trading, production, and midstream .
2026 outlook: volumes flat vs 2025 exit; maintenance CapEx aligned with 2025 including full-year Olympus impact; maintenance CapEx expected to decline toward $2B later this decade .
LNG structures: offtake vs tolling economically similar; structural choice depends on regional supply (e.g., more offtake appetite in Louisiana given Haynesville constraints) .

Estimates Context

EPS beat: Primary EPS consensus mean $0.364* vs actual $0.52* in Q3; prior quarters also beat (Q2: $0.409* vs $0.45*, Q1: $1.012* vs $1.18*) with 24, 21, and 18 estimates respectively [GetEstimates].
Revenue essentially in-line in Q3: $1,782.6M* estimate vs $1,782.6M* S&P actual; note company-reported total operating revenues were $1,958.6M (GAAP), and production adjusted operating revenues were $1,752.6M . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 strengthened the operating baseline: volumes at high end, record-low costs, robust adjusted EBITDA and FCF attributable to EQT, with realized pricing outperforming guidance; these support dividend growth and deleveraging .
EPS beat versus consensus with revenue in-line despite basis volatility; active marketing and curtailment strategies are increasingly structural performance drivers [GetEstimates].
MVP Boost’s fully contracted utility demand and >1 Bcf/d incremental takeaway post-expansion, plus Southgate progress, improve multi-year egress and basis outlook (M2 futures tightening referenced by management) .
LNG portfolio (4.5 MTPA) beginning 2030–31 offers global price diversification with flexible offtake structures; near-term focus shifts to customer sales and regas positions to lock in spread capture .
Balance sheet strategy targets max total debt of $5B; management prioritizes converting debt to equity value before buybacks, while maintaining dividend growth .
2026 maintenance production stable with declining maintenance CapEx over time; Olympus integration and efficiency gains suggest durable cost structure improvements .
Trading implications: volatility is an earnings lever given reduced basis hedging and tactical curtailments; winter setup, LNG demand growth, and associated gas slowing may support pricing; management remains vigilant on 2027 oversupply risks .

Sources: Company Q3 2025 Form 8-K and press release, Q3 2025 earnings call transcript, prior Q1/Q2 press releases; estimates from S&P Global – – – – – – – –. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

EQT Corp (EQT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary